I have read many accounts now of Tuesday's SC hearings. Many said that the mandate is likely to lose 5-4 based on what they heard during the oral arguments. This summary takes a more reasoned view:
http://healthaffairs.org/blog/2012/03/28/william-sage-on-the-supreme-court-aca-arguments-day-two-where-no-law-has-gone-before/
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