Good Summary of What the SC Ruling Means for Medicaid Expansion

One of the key ways of expanding coverage in the ACA was raising Medicaid eligibility to 133% of the poverty level. 29 states opposed being compelled by the feds to do so and now given yesterday's ruling they now have the option not to do so. What does this mean?

If some states do reject the Medicaid expansion, consumers between 100% of poverty and 133% of poverty would become eligible for the private federally subsidized insurance in the exchanges since the subsidies start at 100% of poverty. That would mean more business for those offering private insurance in the exchanges.

It also means that the federal government’s cost of covering these people would increase—covering them under Medicaid would be cheaper than under the private plans in the exchanges.

For those between 100% of poverty and 133% of poverty, it would be a mixed bag. Instead of a Medicaid plan, they would get a mainstream private insurance plan from the exchange that could gain them access to the health care system beyond only the providers who accept Medicaid patients. But they would have to pay 2% of their income in premiums—$600 a year if they make $30,000 a year. And, unlike Medicaid, they would be subject to standard deductibles and copays—perhaps an upfront $1,000 deductible per person. The cheapest plan, the bronze plan, is intended to only cover about 60% of health care costs.

Governors even end up having an incentive to dump Medicaid people onto the exchange—the state has to pay 10% of any Medicaid extension starting in 2017 but none of the cost of subsidies in the private exchanges.

And, some states don't now provide Medicaid coverage for some poor people making less than 100% of the poverty level--leaving them caught in a gap before federal coverage starts at 100%.

So, it’s not an open and shut case for the states on what they should do.